Exposing the Get Rich Quick Scheme of Short-Term Rentals 

Companies like Airbnb and VRBO have paved the path for centralizing short-term rentals. While they have been a hit since their inception, Covid propped them up like a golden child. Over the past 2 years or so, the short-term rental market has exploded. Many areas experienced a price increase that more than DOUBLED due to a huge demand for short-term rental homes—Areas such as 30-A, Blue Ridge, and Gatlinburg.  While certain areas will maintain a sustained level of demand, the numbers are starting to trend down. Part of the issue is the sheer over supply of short-term rentals. It became the popular investment during covid that everyone and their mother thought they could get rich running an…

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The Age Old Question-Do I Buy Now or Wait Until Pricing Drops?

DON'T CLICK OFF TOO SOON, I AM NOT GOING TO BLABBER ABOUT "MARRYING THE HOUSE AND DATING THE RATE". I WOULDN'T DARE BE THAT CLICHE. LET'S BE HONEST, THAT SAYING LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED....

As tempting as it is to anticipate a pending crash in hopes to get a screaming deal. The reality of that happening is quite low, at least where we are positioned in Atlanta. A correction will happen, matter of fact it already has. Most markets around the U.S. are down anywhere from 6-10% off peak pricing. This is primarily because of interest rates leading to lower buyer demand. So, the question remains, can the market drop more? OF COURSE, IT CAN. However, If inflation keeps coming in lower and…

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Inflation comes in LOW compared to expectations. this is why It's awesome for real estate.

The Inflation report is out for the month of October. The expectations were 7.9% YOY, 0.6% MoM CPI, & CPI Core 0.5%. 

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

We beat expectations with 7.7% YOY, 0.4% MOM CPI, and 0.3% Core CPI. This is GREAT news and collectively, so, markets rallied Thursday & Friday. In addition, the 10-year treasury fell 30 basis points to around 3.8% *This directly affects mortgage rates*. I got reports from lenders that rates had come back down to the low sixes after this news. 

This is great news for real estate, if we can sustain this rally. Markets are going to be hesitate until we see this trend continue. Most likely, after this month's CPI report comes out December…

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October Market Data Is In....BIG MISS

The October data is in. While everyone thought this month was going to be a bloodbath, the numbers show a different story. A decline, yes, but a fast-crash, not right now. Let's dive into it. We're going to look at it from two different angles. Month over Month and 10-years back.

*This data is representative of residential "detached" properties in the 11 metro Atlanta counties*

Month over Month

  • Number of Active listings dropped slightly, from 11,513 to 11,063
  • Median Closed Price held stable, $417,490
  • Days to Sell (Median) held stable at 15 days
  • Months of Inventory increased from 3.5 to 4 months 

Overlook, 10-Year Charts:

 


Not only did we not crash and burn in October, we seem…

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I Want You to Have all the Data I Have.. After all, Knowledge is Power, and I Believe You Shouldn't Be Left Behind.


Here is my main gripe with real estate data in almost every capacity. It is compared on too short of a time horizon. Let me preface by saying, all data is useful in some aspect, but not all is made equal. Real estate is a looooong term game. It is historically boring & mundane, no get rich quick scheme here. 


Lets start with inventory, as its the one I hear about the most

Here is a 10-year chart measuring the months of inventory available on the market in the major Metro Atlanta counties. As you can see, the past two years have been a complete anomaly, so I am going to focus on the long-term trend. Inventory tends to spike in Q4…

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JOBS, The Ever So Important Four Letter Word... It's Effect on Demand is Paramount.

Let's talk JOBS. You know that thing where you work for a company or yourself to pay your bills. They are mega important in any market. Here is a quick background into investing. If your picking an area to invest in, you generally look at the population growth(is it growing or shrinking), the labor market (is it strong, is there growing employment), and how is the crime in said area. The leading factor in most of those metrics, JOBS!!


Atlanta developers have delivered almost 9 Million square feet of new warehousing space in Q3 throughout Metro Atlanta. This is the most completed in a single quarter in history. If you think that is impressive, it is unmatched to…

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Atlanta (& Metro) Q3 Numbers Hold Steady.. All While Inflation Numbers Come In Above Expectations, Further Fueling the Headlines..

The Atlanta Market as a whole showed resilience in Q3 compared to the prior quarters. Especially considering the many negative macro factors at play. Inventory picked up primarily as a result of less excess demand. While the amount of FOMO sellers has increased, most of the increase in the "Months of inventory" metric comes from lessened buyer demand. Finally, Home pricing has fallen slightly QoQ, to be expected considering the rise in interest rates from the prior quarter.

 

Something to keep in mind:

It is important to look at certain metrics when determining the strength of the area you live or plan to live…

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September Market Numbers Are Out..Not What We Were Expecting

 

September was a month full of fear, uncertainty, and doubt aka FUD throughout markets across the world. Between interest rate hikes, to war in the east, we are getting whacked with more and more FUD every day. 

Let's take a look at the month over month numbers to see how it affected us here in our local market. Remember, real estate is very LOCALIZED.

September Data 2022:


  • Average Closed Price is up from $534,257 to $539,406
  • Number of New Listings Remained Fairly Flat, Only Down by 200 Listings 
  • Months of Inventory Came Up From Just 2.9 Months to 3.5 Months 
  • Total Days On Market Went From 16 to 18 Days

 

Let's digest this. Like we…

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Watch in the coming weeks. The Media will be crying bloody murder. "REAL ESTATE IS GOING TO DROP 50%". "THE SKY IS FALLING" "THE WORLD IS OVER" I think you get the picture.

Granted, if you were looking for views, you would clickbait your titles as well. Let me paint a picture for you. Let's say you invest $1000 in ABC stock. In 1 year, it gained 30%, they posted record-breaking earnings and future outlook. A week later, ABC stock had a bad press piece come out. ABC stock fell 10%! You are still up a little less than 20% in a year. That is a great return but headlines read "ABC stock is in the toilet, DOWN 10% FOR THE MONTH"!

I think you get my point... Asset classes come into the spotlight, gain popularity as an investment vehicle, get overextended,…

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The Federal Reserve Hikes Their Fed Funds Rate to Expectation, Leading The Bond Market to Instill Further FUD....


Let me preface by saying, I will always provide a no BS point-of-view of the real estate market here in Atlanta. While this week's update is far more macro than Atlanta, it still serves my point. While some will blow smoke to obtain the now business, I believe most, if not all of you are smart enough to see through the BS, so why sugarcoat anything... Let's get into it!


The FED hiked their "terminal federal funds rate" by the tune of 0.75% or 75 basis points. This was expected by an overwhelming majority of the market. I will preface again by saying this doesn't directly up mortgage rates by 75 basis points. This can affect the…

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