I Want You to Have all the Data I Have.. After all, Knowledge is Power, and I Believe You Shouldn't Be Left Behind.

Here is my main gripe with real estate data in almost every capacity. It is compared on too short of a time horizon. Let me preface by saying, all data is useful in some aspect, but not all is made equal. Real estate is a looooong term game. It is historically boring & mundane, no get rich quick scheme here. 

Lets start with inventory, as its the one I hear about the most

Here is a 10-year chart measuring the months of inventory available on the market in the major Metro Atlanta counties. As you can see, the past two years have been a complete anomaly, so I am going to focus on the long-term trend. Inventory tends to spike in Q4 as the peak buying season tends to fall off as we began the holiday season. Inventory then tends to drop back down around the spring time as this tends to be the popular time to shop for homes. Throughout 2020 & 2021, we had very few swings to the upside because of very high demand- keeping inventory low. This year we look to be returning to the normal trend.

Total Days on Market, a look into demand

Here is the 10-year chart measuring Total Days on Market for homes sold in the major Metro Atlanta counties. This chart historically tends to follow the same seasonality as inventory. Peaks in the winter (Q4), and dips starting the spring buying season. Again, the past two years have been an extreme outlier. However, we look to be returning to our historical long-term trend.

Finally, Total Number of Sales, another look into demand

Here is the 10-year chart measuring Total Number of Sales in the major Metro Atlanta counties. This is a good look into the historical demand. Again, seasonality plays a huge role here. This will be inverted compared to the other metrics we looked at. We see a peak number of sales during the spring buying booms and a drop in sales during the slower winter season. Funny part is, demand has still continued this trend for the past 24 months. Q4 is historically the slow time for homebuyers and this year seems to be no different.

I hope this gives you some insight into what the market is doing in Q4 and a true insight into the seasonality of our industry. Real estate is a long-term game. Not a pump and dump or a day-trade. This game takes patience and conviction.

Sleep easy Atlanta! 


Posted by Carson Hulak on


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